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July 30, 2003
Terror Futures Market Update
The terror future market is no more. It will now exist only as a shining example of the foolishness of a group of ivory-tower eggheads who were allowed to run amok. I'm sure it seemed like a good idea on paper, and like some seemingly similar individuals I've seen around on the Blogosphere, it was wonderfully creative....in theory. But in practical application, it had several problems that no one apparently considered at the time.
First and foremost, there's the morality issue. Should our government set up a website which allows betting on potential terrorist acts? This isn't pork bellies or corn futures....these are potentially people's lives upon which wagers would be placed. I find that morally repugnant.
And at its most basic, that's what the futures market is....a form of legalized gambling. I may be just a little old simple country lawyer, but contrary to some people's opinions, I understand how the futures market works. Traders make money on the ability to predict future prices of pork bellies or whatever. Buy low and sell high. You pays your money and you takes your chances. (Unless you're Hillary, of course.)
But like any good gambler, a futures trader makes money off of his ability to assimilate information, calculate odds and predict future outcomes. (Unless you're Hillary) And therein lies the problem. Presumably these traders would not have access to any type of classified intelligence information, so how could they possibly make even semi-accurate predictions? Access to information is the tool by which future traders make accurate predictions and thereby money. So what would they do, allow traders access to all classified intelligence? Yeah, now that's a good idea. [/sarcasm]
For what's to stop terrorist organizations from using this "creative idea" for their own ends? Even if they limited whom was allowed to trade, what's to stop terrorists from putting their own trader inside? Screening? Yeah, we've all seen how well that works....especially with online transactions. I'm sure they would've made the website unhackable too. Such a system lends itself to all kinds of potential abuses....like manipulation of the market by outside forces. But hey, we all know _that_ never happens, right?
These are just a few of the reasons I think this was an extremely....dare I say...STUPID idea. Looked great on paper, but then so does a Ponzi scheme.
And I recognize one of those when I see it too.
Posted by Rita at July 30, 2003 06:28 AM
Comments
Rita you ain't an idiot but I can't agree with you on this one. Monte-Carlo simulations and futures market models have been more successful than poling in every thing from locating lost subs to predicting election results. (search the web for Iowa Electronic Markets), Hell some on=line gambling outfit will probably pick it up anyway.
Posted by: Old Fat Sailor at July 31, 2003 01:08 AM
Thanks Rob. I'm not disparaging the ability of those kinds of things to predict events about which enough information is knowable. I'm just questioning the ability of traders to acquire enough information to predict future events in this situation. To me this looks like playing Texas Hold 'Em without looking at any cards.
I've heard that there are certain "bookies" if you will that have been taking bets on the very same subject matter. Be interesting to see what the bettors' success rate was....I'd bet the bookies made a lot of money.
Besides, it just strikes me as innately immoral. Not gambling, but betting/making money on whether people live or die. I just think that's wrong.
Posted by: Rita at July 31, 2003 05:56 AM
Rita - You have the same problem with this that I do with life insurance - I never was comfortable betting against my living long enough to do whatever. Actually, all insurance is a betting game. We bet we'll have an accident and need more money and the company bets we don't. Of course, we also complain loudly when they raise our rates after we have a claim, too.
Posted by: Bill Snowden at July 31, 2003 11:44 AM
Uh, you mean you look at your cards in Texas Hold Em? Bookies, if they are any good, always make money.
Posted by: Old Fat Sailor at July 31, 2003 08:25 PM
Uh, you mean you look at your cards in Texas Hold Em? Bookies, if they are any good, always make money.
Posted by: Old Fat Sailor at July 31, 2003 08:25 PM
Isn't that the game they play on all these poker tournaments I've been seeing on TV? Hell, I ain't no poker player so maybe I got the name wrong. But you know what I mean.
Posted by: Rita at August 1, 2003 04:14 AM