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October 11, 2004
Interesting Arkansas Poll
One of the statewide newspapers commissioned a poll, and the results were pretty interesting. (The methodology is here, if you're interested) Not so much the 9 point Bush lead, that wasn't much of a surprise. Kerry just doesn't play well in Arkansas.
"In terms of Yankee type presidents, this candidate is Michael Dukakis with one notch up," Shields said, comparing Kerry to the 1988 Democratic presidential nominee. "He's very aristocratic. He's very New England. He has very little in common with hunters and NASCAR fans."
As for Bush, Shields said, "you could see him just sitting down at a NASCAR race or going fishing or going hunting. And I think voters can relate to that."
Right you are Todd, even if you do imply we're all a bunch of gun-toting stockcar racing hicks. Kerry's biggest problem in Arkansas, and much of the South, is that he not only appears to be a damn Yankee, he also appears to be a rich, French-loving snobbish damn Yankee.
What I did think was interesting was the economic & educational breakdown of Kerry supporters in the state.
-Bush did better among those with higher education levels. Fifty-seven percent of those with some college and 58 percent with a college degree support Bush. Fifty-six percent of voters with some high school and 51 percent of high school graduates support Kerry.
And since education level is correlated to household income level, these results aren't too surprising.
-Support for Kerry is greatest among the lowest income households. Fifty-seven percent of households earning under $20,000 picked Kerry as did the 54 percent earning less than $30,000 annually.
-Support shifts dramatically to Bush as soon as incomes rise above $30,000. Fifty-six percent of the $30,000 to $40,000 bracket pick Bush.
-In the $40,000-$50,000 bracket, Kerry regains support - 54 percent to Bush's 42 percent.
-Bush's support is greatest among households with incomes above $50,000. Sixty-six percent earning between $50,000 and $75,000 support Bush, and 65 percent of those earning more than $75,000 pick Bush.
Kerry. The #1 choice of the poor, uneducated Arkansan.
Not the demographic he was going for I suspect.
Posted by Rita at October 11, 2004 07:58 AM